预测未来是出了名的难。
Predicting the future is notoriously difficult.
比如，在1970年代中期，谁能想到到20世纪末，计算机会像电视机一样普遍地出现在人们家中？
Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s, for example, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets?
在1970年代，计算机已经相当普及，但仅限于大企业、政府部门和大型机构中。
In the 1970s, computers were common enough, but only in big business, government departments and large organizations.
这些就是所谓的大型主机。
These were the so-called mainframe machines.
大型主机确实非常庞大，往往占据整个装有空调的机房，需要专职技术人员，并运行在专门编写的软件上。
Mainframe computers were very large indeed often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, employing full-time technicians and run on specially-written software.
尽管这些大型主机至今仍然存在，但它们的许多功能已被小型、强大的个人计算机所取代，这种计算机通常被称为PC。
Though these large machines still exist, many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs.
1975年，一台名为Altair的原始机器在美国问世。
In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA.
它可以恰当地被称为第一台"家用计算机"，它指引了通往未来的方向。
It can properly be described as the first 'home computer' and it pointed the way to the future.
紧随其后的是，在1970年代末，一款名为Apple的机器问世了。
This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an Apple.
在1980年代初，计算机巨头IBM推出了世界上第一台个人计算机。
In the early 1980s, the computer giant, IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer.
这台计算机运行在名为DOS的"操作系统"上，该系统由当时还是一家小公司的微软开发。
This ran on an 'operating system' called DOS, produced by a then small company named Microsoft.
IBM个人计算机被广泛仿制。
The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied.
从那些微不足道的起点出发，我们已经见证了如今普遍使用的用户友好型家用电脑和多媒体设备的发展。
From those humble beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.
考虑到这些发展是多么晚近的事，更加令人惊叹的是，早在1960年代，一位英国人莱昂·巴格里特便能预见我们今天所知道的一些计算机用途。
Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today.
巴格里特否定了这样一种想法：计算机能够自主"思考"并"统治世界"——这是当时人们喜欢相信的。
Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to 'think' for themselves and would 'rule the world', which people liked to believe in those days.
巴格里特预见到了这样一个时代：计算机会小到可以握在手中；它们将能够提供交通堵塞信息并建议替代路线；它们将被用于医院，帮助医生诊断疾病；它们将把办公室工作人员和会计从枯燥重复的文书工作中解放出来。
Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand, when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes, when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, when they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work.
所有这些计算机用途都已经变得司空见惯。
All these computer uses have become commonplace.
当然，莱昂·巴格里特不可能预见到互联网的发展——这个遍及全球的系统，让我们能够通过连接到电话网络的计算机，即时与世界任何地方的任何人通讯。
Of course, Leon Bagrit couldn't possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet, the worldwide system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world by using computers linked to telephone networks.
他也不可能预见到我们会如何利用互联网获取每一个已知领域的信息，以便在家中的屏幕上阅读，甚至在需要时还能将其打印出来。
Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if we want to.
计算机已经变得越来越小、越来越强大、越来越便宜。
Computers have become smaller and smaller, more and more powerful and cheaper and cheaper.
正是这一点使得莱昂·巴格里特的预言格外非凡。
This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions particularly remarkable.
如果他，或者像他一样的人今天还活着，或许能够告诉我们在未来五十年里会有什么期待。
If he, or someone like him, were alive today, he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next fifty years.